Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods:-Make your portfolio a healthy 1

ScripScan:Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods
Code:531335
CMP:93


[Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods news,views and analysis/owner of nutralite brand/results/future prospects/acquired by cadilla/Analsyt buy call/cheap and attractive valuations/Solid fundamentals/great buy/Target price/What should be done with carnation nutra]


Background:Carnation Nutra is a company belonging to the Cadila Group. Cadila Group acquired the compny and thereafter came out with an open offer in the month of May 06at a price of Rs.150 per share.Cadila group currently owns 61% equity in the company.

Introduction:Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods is a manufacturer of table margarine, which sells under the brand Nutralite.Nutralite is the largest selling margarine in India with a market share of 60%.Margirine is made from refined vegetable oils and is priced comparatively cheaper to butter.Hence,making it an attractive option for general masses.Further,Nutralite can replace butter in all applications and can be used for cooking, baking, frying, and as a spread on bread, toasts, biscuits etc. Hence, there are tremendous growth prospects for the product. Carnation is targeting urban health conscious middle class segment. The company is also operating in regular diary products like butter, processed cheese & pizza cheese.As of today the margarine market is very small in India and whatever growth has achieved by the company is with zero advertising.Now the company has started aggressive marketing campaign of Nutralite including advertising on various Television Channels and distribution of samples of Nutralite free with packs of Sugar Free.

Outlook:The company has a nation-wide presence & has the second largest market share in up-markets of Maharashtra, Delhi & Gujarat after Amul.As the health awareness among Indian populace is at a never before high, the product has also shown extreme consumer interest which is only expected to increase from here.It has a strong distribution across India with several distributors.Carnation is also considering exports aimed at Middle East & African nations.

Conclusion:The market for Margirine is extremely tiny compared to butter and that will help it to register exponential growth in the years to come.The company is a debt-free entity.Carnation nutra has shown strong consitency in its topline and bottomline over the last many years.The management is aiming for a more than 80% bottomline jump in the current fiscal.The company is expected to continue with its robust growth in the coming years.Valuations at the current level looks cheap with a forward 09 P/E ratio of around 6.5.Everbody is aware of the cadila"s product "Sugar free",there is every reason cadila with its brand building experience can set the same stage for nutralite. So considering at the solid pedigree,bright prospects,huge growth,booming industry,ambitious initiatives,export potential,CARNATION NUTRA MAY JUST PROVE TO BE THE NEXT BIG THING.

Ridiculious stuffs of stock markets

[Indian stock markets and normal behavior of people/huge targets for nothing/Multibaggers/Quiting from market/How to make up the huge losses/which company to buy/what are the prospects of sensex companies/Psus safe bets/Good dividend yield paying companies/learn and earn/make your fortune from stock markets/never blame our markets/you are responsible for all your losses]


Below given are some funny stuffs noted by me.Most are happening words of general investors though the majority fails to make any head or tails out of them.So here we go:-

1)Buy the "Script"-One of the age-old word which undoubedtly got chanted a billion times and am sure the reader reading it now has got it wrong too.Its "SCRIP" buddies and not a 'script'-We dont talk about films during the utterence of that word rite?Then why the hell that wrong word gets pronounced time and again?Grow up people.

2)Guy gives a target of 20% up and says it to be a "Multibagger"-Another ridiculios stuff which i noticed a hell lot of times.Multi means 5 so therefore a multibagger is a 5 bagger-100 to 500 for a scrip is a multibagger but 100 to 120 as that guy assigned is a mere outperformer.At most, it can be said to be a scrip with a multibagger potential nothing else.So make sure you make the multibagger word applicable again only when it has got the potential to be so.

3)Target 1000 present price 80 duration 6 months-Very common 'proverb' though the price and the duration can vary from person to person.Now tell me why do you beleive such stuffs?If the guy giving the call was so confident then he wouldnt have bothered to pass the call to you-He in no time would have sold his everything for the sake of having a chunk of that counter,isnt it?Kind peoples are hard to get folks, its a selfish world.Make sure you dont get into such absured stuffs.

4)[Notional gain of 5000-Isse kya hoga][Notional loss of 1000-Main Barbad hogaya]-Lolz-Just giggled,breathed now let me procced on.How many of you posses that quality?Not satisfied irrespective of how big the profits are,very depressed with tiny losses.Also, Please remember notional profits or losses are just profits/losses on books,its not been realized yet.So till you book the profit or loss just shut your mouth.hehehe........

5)I am leaving the market,how many of you are following me-Its a fresh recent topic i saw in a social networking website.You have sold everything that you owned and you are on with your 'outrageous' speeches.These are pretty obvious stuffs after getting poundings on your stock market commitments.But just give it a thought-You have invested,done all the hard works,got into a decent company which is set to perform big time but mayhem came amidst and rattled the markets-Your company nosedived as just people like you panicked and exited without giving it a second look.Why to sell and why to leave?After darkness comes the day,dar ke age jeet hain-wont these words come to your mind?.If you are suffereing from heavy losses its only because of your own fault.Never blame the markets...mind it.

Pioneer Embroideries:-Going to rock soon

Scripscan:-Pioneer Embroideries Ltd
Cmp:70
Target:150
Return expected:115%
Duration:9-12 months


[Pioneer Embroideries Ltd news,views and analysis/ Retail venture news and real estate/owner of hakoba brand/results/future prospects/Land bank/Analsyt buy call/cheap and attractive valuations/Solid fundamentals/great buy/Target price/What should be done with Pioneer Embroideries Ltd?]


Story:Pioneer Embroideries Limited (PEL) is one of the largest players in the embroideries Et laces segment in the world.It is also India's largest manufacturer-exporter of embroideries and bobbin laces.It has got seven embroidery manufacturing units located at Mumbai, Sarigam, Naroli, Haryana, Bangalore, Navi Mumbai and Coimbatore.The company has been struggling to put on good results due to higher interst and depriciation costs but overall the turnover has been on a continuos rise.Now i like the story mostly becuase it has got a big retail and a small real estate presence.For the real estate segment the company has already signed a development agreement with Suntech Realty and it’s coming up in Borivali,Mumbai.It has also got real estates in Bangalore, in Coimbatore,Delhi and few other places as well.Plenty of you have heard the name of the retail store"Hakoba" isnt it?Its a subsidary of the company and is called Hakoba Lifestyle Limited where it owns 85% and 15% being with BCCL.The company presently has 64 outlets in 35 cities of india.The company is planning to increase the retail stores to 200 by fy09.The retail segment contributed 43crs of reveue in fy07 and the same is expected to increase at a tremendous speed going forward.At present prices of 70rs its market cap should be around 84crs.The mumbai property alone is worth 50crs,if i add up all the real estates the same would total up to 70-75crs.The company is the leader in its field with 7 manufacturing units, so the rest of the market cap gets added there.So what about the 200 hakoba stores by 09?Chow guys...You are getting them for free...64 outlets generated 43crs of revenues..how much 200 stores can?Put up the calculator and calculate coz in the scrip price of 70 it hasnt been calculated yet.Go for it guys.

Indian stock markets:-Increase Your Conviction buddies

[Indian stock markets/Sensex nifty crashes/all companies to double in 1 month/Looks good on the charts/Company has got an order/They are planning an expansion and diversification/Won some export orders/Big Bull and big operator is buying/rakesh jhunjhunwala and manekar buying into it/CDR/OTS done/Going for GDR/FCCB/market has bottomed or not/brokers suggestion/Double your money from free stock tips]


So Sensex over the last few months crashed from 21,200 to a level of 15,500 now, all investors have lost money like never before.The more the money one had made in this bull run, the bigger the hit one has taken because appetite for risk also went up. People kept on putting more money as the market went up. But this time, magnitude was much bigger, profits were huge and so were the losses.Most investors are set back by 18-24 months.

However, all doomsayers who are predicting markets to crash to 10000 level would prove wrong and as i anticipate markets would stabilize at 14500-15000 levels. However,investors should lower their expectations and should not expect same bumper returns as in 2006-07.Moreover,there may be profit booking at every rise.Partly, investors are also to be blamed for picking stocks at any price (upon hearsay) without looking at fundamentals of the company or at the valuations.This time, investors should try to avoid following mistakes:

1)It will double in 1 month:If it were so, why tipster will tell you to make so much money?Instead, he himself will beg,borrow or steal to have enough money and buy entire quantity of such scrip for himself.

2)Looks good on the chart:Intraday or short term traders may sometimes make money on this basis.However,it is a strict No No for long term investors.One should remember that no business enterprise runs on charts.Hence, how business of share investing can run on charts?

3)Company has got an order:One should verify what is the execution period of such an order, when and how much it will contribute to company's topline and bottomline? Sometimes,bigger the order,lower the profit margin.

4)They are planning an expansion:Expansion of production capacity necessarily does not mean expansion of bottomline also.Whether big investment in new capacity will yield judicious returns?Whether there is enough demand to meet expanded capacity? In the past,many big companies became BIFR case after their mad expansion.

5)Won some export orders:Such order will constitute how much of total turnover in percentage terms?Did management clarify whether export orders are more remunerative or less remunerative?Export orders do not necessarily translate into higher profits.

6)Big Bull is buying:Did they ever tell you what big bull is selling?

7)Big Operator is buying:By the time such news reaches you,such operator has already turned into a seller and most probably,you are buyer of his sold quantities.

8)CDR/OTS:In many many cases,companies became significant due to siphoning off funds by the promoters.What is the guarantee that promoters will not again siphon off the funds after CDR?Many companies became CDR case due to inefficiencies and they will continue to remain inefficient even after CDR.

CDR means better future for those companies which were genuinely suffering due to bad market conditions and promoters have genuine reputation.However, investors tend to pick any CDR case company without realizing that perhaps this was the only CDR case in that industry in which most other companies were faring well.

9)Going for GDR/FCCB: Most of the company's stock price falls sharply after GDR/FCCB issue.It clearly shows that share price was being ramped up before such issue.Hence, investors should avoid to buy such scrips at peak valuations just before GDR.

10)Brokers tells you to average the scrip.It is advisable to average the scrip only if price has come down due to bad sentiment.However, in many cases, price is coming down due to expected lower performance in view of which lay investor is not aware. It is like betting again and again, more and more on a losing horse.Instead, investors can make up for their mistakes by investing additional money only in some other companies which are doing better.

No one can exactly say whether market has bottomed or not? Investors should see whether the market will be higher than current level 6 to 12 month hence. If answer is yes, start investing.

Equity is a long term instrument and if there is nothing wrong with the Indian companies you want to invest in, or the Indian economy and country as a whole, and if market is going down due to technical factors, investors should not panic, and wait.If, some FII are selling today,tomorrow, other FII will come to buy. There is no problem for long term investors.We should change our views only if fundamentals change.

Finally, if, Indian economy is doing well and if Indian Equities are attractive,I feel that it is not due to Rahu-Ketu (politicians-bureaucrats) but INSPITE of them. Things are happening due to perseverance, intelligence, tolerance, hardwork and ambition of Indian citizens who deserve the real credit for nation building.

All about the bull markets and prospects of indian stock markets

Indian stock markets and the prospects of it.


[Indian stock markets and the bull run/how long will the bull run continue/any chances of a bear market/correction in the stock markets/sectors which can perform in the coming days/reforms and the consequences/expensive valuation of the indian stock markets/growth slowing down/monsoon,Liquidity and growth factor/Which are the stock to go for/high gdp growth may not continue/consolidation phase likely/future of the indian stock market/when would the next bull run begin]


Many factors responsible for investors' interest in India are now rapidly receding. After my “Nightmare” article, most people consider me far too cynical and old-fashioned for this raging bull market. Trying to understand my own biases, I felt it would be useful to try and trace the origins of this bull run.

If one goes back to Feb-March 2003, that would in my mind mark the beginning of the current bull cycle from where the market has already given more than 700% over the past 60 months. If one were to accept this as the starting point, how were the conditions then, which enabled this bull run?

First of all, the markets in 2003 were very, very cheap, trading at just about 10 times earnings (an all-time low), interest rates had bottomed and there was tremendous surplus capacity available with Indian industry. Industry had also spent 3-4 years prior to 2003 getting its cost position aligned with global benchmarks, and was thus lean, mean and
well-positioned for any up tick in business. Commodity prices were also just beginning to rise.

Basically everything was set for a huge surge in earnings if economic growth were to accelerate (operating leverage), and this is exactly what happened. We had excellent monsoons in 2003-04, and GDP growth accelerated to over 8 per cent, corporate earnings rocketed, rising by over 40 per cent and the return on equity (RoE) and the return on capital employed (RoCE) expanded as corporate India was able to use its idle capacity.

The strong growth in earnings, coupled with rising RoEs and strong free cash flow attracted the attention of investors globally. These trends were only further reinforced in till end 0f 2007 as economic growth remained strong and corporate earnings vibrant. The strong commodity price environment of the past 5-6 years further reinforced these trends.

Thus, one aspect of the bull story has been the good news on earnings and RoEs, coupled with very cheap valuations. India had the highest earnings growth and RoEs in the emerging markets universe.

The second aspect of the bull run was the feeling in mid-2003 of the country beginning to move in the right direction in terms of economic policies and reforms. This was the period when the previous NDA government was seen to be at its most effective..

We had hopes of serious progress on the power front, with the passing of the Electricity Act and the privatisation of distribution in Delhi. The template to solving the country's power woes seemed to have been established. On roads and private sector involvement in ports, there was tremendous progress. The progress and belief in economic reforms accelerating the growth trajectory of the country were the second part of this bull story. That India had begun its journey to fulfil its economic destiny was a common belief.

The third part of this bull cycle is related to trends in global liquidity and the general move of investors towards emerging markets. Strong global liquidity encouraged investors to look for returns wherever they could find them, and India's price momentum was self-reinforcing.

Now if we examine each of these points today, we get a very different picture.

First, on valuations. Trading at 16-18 times earnings, the markets in India are no longer cheap (among the most expensive in the EM universe). Also it is my humble submission that given the slew of capex announcements and fund raisings, RoEs and RoCEs have peaked for corporate India.

Most of the idle capacity available has been used and growth from here needs companies to set up new capacity. Interest rates can only rise and operating leverage diminish.

Thus, even if GDP growth were to remain strong, the pace of corporate earnings will slow and they can no longer grow at 3-4 times nominal GDP.

Free cash flows for corporate India have already turned negative. Slowing earnings, falling RoEs, and declining free cash flow are normally a recipe for P/E contraction, not expansion.

On the reforms front, the less said the better. Not a single item mentioned previously in this article has been implemented or has any chance of being implemented by the UPA alliance. I cannot understand how anyone can genuinely believe that India has entered a new era of 8.5-9 per cent plus GDP growth in the absence of progress on power reforms and
labour laws, and other structural impediments..Maybe being a lad of 19 am too young to understand all the reforms but I don’t feel I have mistaken much.

If this government does not get its act together on electricity, roads, railways, airports, etc. these infrastructure constraints are bound to eventually short-circuit growth. Does any investor truly believe this government will be able to attack the structural constraints holding back industry?

On the liquidity front also, the party cannot last for ever. Emerging markets have had five good years in relative terms and could easily reverse. Global interest rates are poised to rise and FII inflows into India are at unsustainable levels.

This bull run began with very cheap markets, strongly accelerating earnings, rising RoEs, and the hope that the country was on the right track in terms of structural reforms. The external liquidity environment was also very supportive for investors to buy into a long-term story like India.

Most of these factors have now reversed. Yet the bulls expect markets to keep rising. A period of consolidation is the best case outcome to my mind.I should admit that it was only in 2002 when I was 13 years of age-I entered the world of corporates,the stock market world.The journey has been thoroughly fascinating for me and as I am the only lad from my family in these world, every passing day has been exciting like never before.I have been growing slowly and learning from the markets,my followers and readers etc.Have had a great experience anyways in the midst of an important article shouldnt speak much shits...hhehee..Hopefully market should consolidate before making another big waves in the years to come...keep buying companies which can grow at 60%-80% CAGR for the coming years.I know its tought to find those but trust me they exists..most got covered in these blog of mine,more to find their places.Happy investing folks.

IOL Netcom:-Expectation hurts

Scripscan:IOL Netcom
My views:Read on
Traded in:Bse


[IOL Netcom news,views and analysis/IPTV and its effects/valuations expensive/pathetic results/target price/Bulk deals/Fii selling/Analyst buy call in Iol netcom/reason for the share fall/Future prospects/much better bets available]


Another company which hogs the limelight is undoubtedly IOL Netcom.The company basically provides the much hyped Internet Protocol Television (IPTV).It does so by setting up an IP based content provisioning system and feeding into the broadband networks of BSNL and MTNL.The scrip was fancied as the hottest buy with price targets ranging from 2000-5000rs.Iol had a dream run in the bourses- the counter moved from a level of 3rs in march 05 all the way to a stunning figure of 619 in july 07. Last night i got a mail from a follower of mine who pleaded to give a fundamental check of the company.So here it is:-

1)It hasnt got any owner or promoter,no owner stake nothing.I glanced through the shareholding pattern of the company only to discover huge chunk of holdings by some corporate bodies and Fiis.Now in my approach of stock picking i dont opt for companies with miniscule promoter holdings.I feel promoters do work harder when they have got a larger shareholding.The commitment increases the vision gets better and eventually they becomes the biggest beneficaries of a rise in stock prices.Without shares in your company why would the big guys work?No matter its making profits or losses you being thye host in your company would always draw fat salaries.Again uninspiring stuffs.

2)Monopoly business,stunning potential of the company-Agreed.But its so disgusting to notice the ever rising equity of the company.Every now and then it allots warrants and equity gets blotted.Balance sheet shows not much of debts,i wonder why they are so interested in enhancing the equity.I find no clue folks.Not inspiring at all.

3)I do recollect even some months ago, a buy recomendation from a high following personality in the counter gave this company a high mindshare among investors and, hence, higher expectations. Now when you dont cope up to the expectation you get the dues.Same has happened to the counter inspite of several positive factors the company has failed to deliver numbers infact they been terrible and pathtic.I fail to undestand with the company doing horrendously why investors park their money in the counter?.When you're looking into the abyss, you don't quibble over details isnt it?

4)Several analysts and firms initiated buy on the counter with rich targets.The company missed the revenue and profit target by an immense distance.Maybe the research firm and the analysts worked for some vested interest in the company.Its hi-time our regulator examines how such reports are conjured up to influence simple investors to have a stake in the counter.

In conclusion I can only say it has thoroughly failed to live up to investors expectations.Horrible results with losses increasing at a rapid speed.I reckon the Fiis which bought at a much higer price and exiting now are all P-note stuffs.Who is firing the gun behind the scenes in anyone”s guess. A bull market and hyped-up buy calls can cause even the most cautious among us to turn reckless, and it is useful to remember that you can always buy much better companies with decent promoter holding and robust results.

Aishwarya Telecom:-Dont deserve a price of 136rs

Scripscan:Aishwarya Telecom
Code:511533
June 1st CMP:100


[Aishwarya Telecom news,views and analysis/why to avoid/valuations expensive/works in little margin/target price/stay away and avoid/Single client dependency/Future prospects/much better bets available]


Aishwarya Telecom recently tapped the market and went on to high a of 136rs within few days of its listing.Its presently quoting at 100 rs,so is it worth an investment at present level?Read on.

Aishwarya Telecom is a ISO 9001:2000 Certified company manufacturing Mobile and Broadband Tester.

1)Basically the company has more of trading business.It imports the products from overseas players and the sells the same to its clients.The company has been in the sector for over a decade now but hasnt found the road easy to grow despite the massive demand for the sector.

2)The company gets majority of its revenue from the psu giant BSNL.Though it has been able to offer its product to other non psu companies but these are in very nascent stage.Aishwarya is relatively a small player with revenues of 30crs expected in the present fiscal 08.The company faces stiff competition from market leaders like Agilent Technologies,Rohde & Schwarz etc.It would be prudent to note that these companies have got a long decent relationship with most of the operators,so aishwarya with its small scale would find it tough to come superior to these companies and bag major orders.Also if those companies comes in india to to do business aishwarya may just find it too tough to survive.Looking at the sectorial boom and low cost nature of our country that remains a huge possibility.

3)At present prices of 100 odd its quoting at a PE multiple of 24 its expected 08 earnings.It can be compared with listed player like aplab which trades at a multiple of just 8.Further aplab is a 120crs turnover company with long existence.There are many more players available at a PE multiple of about 6-8 which are the manufacturer and having better pedigrees.Still those companies are struggling to attract better valuations.

4)Its of anyone"s guess that some operators build positions in the company, result being the high of 136rs after listing.Present huge volumes and flip in the price suggest that they are in a hurry to exit the counter.So if you have a position in the scrip better exit or else chances remains another junk stock may spoil your portfolio for a long period of time.